The Opportunities and Risks of the Second Trump Administration - A View from the American Perspective

With the second term of Donald Trump serving as President of the United States, many Americans are facing the question of what opportunities and risks this might bring for the country. Here’s an examination from the perspective of the citizens of the USA:

Opportunities

1. Economic Recovery and Growth

• Continuation of Tax Cuts: Lower corporate taxes not only provide incentives for businesses to invest in the USA and create jobs but also have a positive effect on consumers. Higher corporate taxes often result in businesses passing on these additional costs to consumers in the form of higher prices. Lower taxes, on the other hand, help keep prices stable and curb inflation. This directly benefits consumers by strengthening their purchasing power.

  
  

• Higher Tariffs and Tax Incentives for US Investments: By combining higher tariffs on imported goods with additional tax cuts for businesses, a second Trump administration could encourage companies to invest more in the USA. Production facilities that were previously relocated abroad might return to the US, strengthening domestic industry and creating new jobs.

  
  

• Increased Tax Revenue from Growth: The relocation of production facilities to the US and the securing or creation of new jobs would have long-term positive effects on public finances. Increased tax revenues—both from corporate profits and income taxes from workers—could help reduce national debt, despite the initial costs of tax relief and investment programs.

  
  

• Focus on Domestic Industry: Trump’s “America First” policy has already led to the repatriation of production facilities to the US. A continuation of this policy could further strengthen domestic industry and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains.

  
  

• Investments in Infrastructure: Plans to modernize roads, bridges, and other critical infrastructure could not only create jobs but also improve the quality of life for many Americans.

  
  

2. Stricter Immigration Control

• Reduction in Illegal Immigration: The strict measures taken by the Trump administration to combat illegal immigration—such as building the border wall—helped reduce the number of illegal immigrants. This policy was partially abandoned under the Biden administration, which led to a dramatic increase in illegal immigration. Growing recognition of the failure of immigration policies under Biden has prompted many Democrats to acknowledge the need for stricter measures. A return to Trump’s immigration policies could reduce illegal immigration further and help stabilize the society.

  
  

• Prioritizing Legal Immigration: Immigration system reforms could allocate more resources to legal immigration, encouraging the entry of skilled workers.

  
  

3. Strengthening National Security

• Responsible Foreign Policy: Trump has pointed out that many traditional allies are not fully meeting their defense obligations. This reality has led to tensions in international relations but is not the fault of the USA. A second Trump administration could increase pressure on allies to meet their commitments, leading to a more equitable sharing of the burden, which would ultimately relieve the USA from financial and military strain.

  
  

• Tougher Stance on International Threats: Trump’s policy of strength could ensure that America positions itself clearly and decisively in international conflicts. A focus on independence in defense matters could reduce reliance on international alliances.

  
  

4. Climate Policy and Energy Security

• Continuation of Climate Projects and Focus on Clean Energy Sources: Even under the Trump administration, climate protection measures were continued, albeit not always in the form expected by the international community. The US has continued to invest in various climate-friendly projects, particularly in renewable energy and energy efficiency. In a second term, Trump could continue to focus on innovations in energy production but with a stronger emphasis on utilizing domestic resources and technologies.

  
  

• New Nuclear and Coal Power Plants with Modern Standards: A forward-looking aspect of Trump’s policy could be the construction of new nuclear power plants that are developed according to the latest standards. These modern nuclear power plants produce very little waste, and most of the radioactive waste generated is produced in small amounts that can be disposed of in an environmentally responsible way. Similarly, new coal plants could be built, equipped with advanced CO2 filters and CO2 capture technologies that drastically reduce CO2 emissions and minimally impact the environment. These projects could make the USA a leader in clean carbon technology while ensuring the country’s energy supply.

  
  

• Dealing with Climate Change: Trump and his supporters believe that climate change is not exclusively man-made but rather a natural period in Earth’s history when the climate changes due to natural processes. This perspective is supported by a number of scientists who argue that climate fluctuations are an integral part of the planet’s geological development. Numerous leading climate scientists, physicists, astrophysicists, and historians who support this view have demonstrated that climate change, in many cases, is part of a natural cycle that has occurred over millennia. This theory is increasingly supported by a significant number of experts in various disciplines who do not attribute all climate fluctuations to human activity.

  
  

• Halting Deforestation of Rainforests: A significant contribution to climate protection could be stopping the deforestation of rainforests in South America and Indonesia. Between 1990 and 2020, over 4.2 million km² of forest were cleared, an area equivalent to twelve times the size of Germany. This deforestation has global implications for the climate, as forests play an important role in the CO2 cycle. Projects for reforestation and the protection of remaining rainforests could make a significant contribution to reducing climate change. Likewise, a return to less intensive agriculture and the promotion of reforestation could help reduce temperatures and flooding.

  
  

• Excessive Meat Consumption and Environmental Impact: Another area that could present a significant challenge for the future Trump administration is the excessive consumption of meat, which is primarily sourced from South America. Livestock farming, particularly cattle farming, is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing meat consumption, without completely giving it up, could have a positive effect on the climate. Meat is still considered a luxury product, which, at current prices, is often seen as cheaper than locally grown organic vegetables. This presents a challenge that would also need to be addressed through new agricultural policies and support for more sustainable meat production.

  
  

---

Risks

1. Polarization of Society

The social divides that deepened under the first Trump administration pose a significant challenge:

• Political Divides: Polarization between Republicans and Democrats has reached new heights. Both sides often seem unable to compromise, leading to legislative gridlock. Issues such as healthcare reform, climate policy, and immigration are at the forefront.

  
  

• Social Divides: The Black Lives Matter movement (BLM) was founded during the Obama administration as the number of incidents involving African Americans increased during that time. However, under the Trump administration, the number of these incidents decreased, which many saw as a positive development. Still, issues of racial justice and police reform remain hotly debated in American society.

  
  

• Increase in Illegitimate Births among African Americans: A significant social shift is also seen in the family and social structures of the African American community. In the 1960s, about 80% of births occurred within intact families with both a father and mother. Today, this proportion is around 20-30%, while between 70-80% of African Americans are born out of wedlock. This development has far-reaching social consequences, particularly regarding family support and access to social and economic opportunities. This is one of the deep-rooted challenges exacerbated by increasing polarization and the absence of an overarching social policy.

  
  

• Cultural Tensions: A profound cultural issue in the USA is the growing rift between different parts of society—not only between rural and urban areas but also within urban society. In many areas, there is the view that the majority of the population should take into account the needs of minorities, which is deeply ingrained in American tradition. It used to be: “The exceptions prove the rule.” However, this viewpoint has been increasingly challenged by a shift toward the idea that “exceptions determine the rule.” This has created deep divisions, as many Americans—not just in rural areas but also in urban ones—feel that this change restricts their own freedoms and rights. The loss of this balance between individual freedom and the protection of minority rights has created tensions that have become a source of dissatisfaction for many. The next Trump administration will face the challenge of overcoming this rift and restoring a balance between the needs of the majority and minority groups to promote social stability.

  
  

2. Economic Risks

• Trade Wars: Protectionist measures such as tariffs might protect American producers in the short term, but they could burden consumers if imported goods become more expensive.

  
  

• Short-Term Burden from Tax Cuts: While the long-term effects of tax cuts may have positive effects on the economy and public debt, there could be short-term deficits if the expected tax revenues do not materialize or are delayed.

  
  

3. Climate Policy Setbacks

• Different Approach to Climate Change: While the Trump administration does not view climate change as exclusively man-made but rather as a natural cycle in Earth’s history, this stance could face international resistance. For many climate scientists and international organizations, man-made global warming is considered an urgent crisis that requires immediate action. Returning to a less active climate policy could lead to international tensions.

Over all: A second Trump administration could offer both opportunities and risks for the USA. It would continue to focus on economic growth, freedom, national security, and conservative social policies. At the same time, significant challenges remain regarding societal polarization, international cooperation, and climate policy.